The files we follow: Karabakh Situation; Abkhazia and South Ossetia / Georgia Conflict; Georgia – EU/ US/Russia/Ukraine Relations and Georgian Domestic Policy, South Caucasian energy, trade and transport issues, Human Rights in South Caucasus, Various foreign policies Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia.
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On 28-29 February, Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhoun Bayramov met in Berlin within the framework of bilateral meetings regarding the draft agreement “On the establishment of peace and interstate relations” about which Annalena Baerbock, their German counterpart, spoke of “courageous steps” taken by the protagonists. However, similar press releases do not report any particular progress. The two officials immediately headed to the Antalya Diplomatic Forum in Turkey. On 21 February, Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigorian announced that he had received the Azerbaijani response to the January Armenian proposal regarding the peace treaty. And on 17 February, the two heads of state met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, in the presence of their German counterpart Olaf Scholz and then during a bilateral meeting. On this occasion, they also met separately with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and OSCE Secretary General Helga Schmid.
On 28 February, the European Parliament adopted a resolution that calls for strengthening the mandate of the EUMA, increasing its size, extending its duration and placing observers along the border with Turkey. And she “invites the Vice President – High Representative and the EEAS to further support Armenia through the European Peace Support Facility, in particular with a view to strengthening its defense capabilities against hybrid threats in order to expand its security space beyond the Collective Security Treaty Organization”. It also call on the European Union to “immediately impose sanctions on Azerbaijan and suspend the memorandum of understanding on a strategic partnership in the field of energy”.
It should be noted two paradoxical points of the European position which recognizes “that Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory” but “deplores that the Baku offensive constituted a flagrant violation of international law”. Or who actively calls on Baku to diversify its gas supply but who declares here “to question the opportunity for Azerbaijan to host COP29 in 2024, while the country plans to increase its production of fossil fuels by a third over the next decade.” This second point reveals an important point of debate between the different European institutions on the subject of the Union’s energy autonomy, while the first reveals a variable geometry appropriation of the principles of international law to which the Azerbaidjani Foreign Affairs Ministry reacted strongly recalling that no civilian population had been targeted during the “anti-terrorist operation” of September 2023 and that the European Parliament promoted separatism just like the former Armenian occupation of its territories. This parliamentary resolution was also strongly criticized by the Milli Madjlis.
On 22 February, the Armenian Prime Minister, Nikol Pachinian, gave an interview to France 24, following his participation in the reburial ceremony of Missak and Mélinée Manouchian at the Panthéon in Paris, during which he notably declared that an “attack on Armenia [was] very likely” given the Azerbaijani president’s statements about “West Azerbaijan” and the 4 Armenian casualties on 13 February. He also accused Russia of attempting to destabilize and overthrow power in Armenia while expressing “concern” about the war in Ukraine constituting a violation of the Alma-Ata Declaration. He also declared that he had effectively “frozen” Armenian participation in the CSTO, a term which aroused incomprehension on the Russian side. Information regarding an upcoming visit by the Ukrainian president to Armenia has even circulated, unconfirmed by Alen Simonian, the president of the National Assembly.
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