Russia Geopolitical Watch – from 28 January to 3 February 2023

Russia Watch Team: Olga Schevchuk, Arnaud Huss, Nicolas Girard, Corentin DelonAnastasia K.Erwann Leyral, Emeline Palvany, led by Ilinka Léger and Enzo Padovan.

30/01/2023 : According to NATO and Ukrainian authorities, Russia is preparing a new major offensive in Ukraine – Anastasia K.

On 30th January, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, said that the Russian government is showing signs of escalating the war in Ukraine. The secretary explained that a massive mobilisation (more than 200,000 troops) was underway in Russia, words that were relayed on the NATO website. In particular, the Russian state has reportedly increased its production of arms and ammunition, which it is also acquiring from “authoritarian” states such as Iran and North Korea. The latter is already accused of supplying equipment to the Russian paramilitary group Wagner. In its daily update on the situation in Ukraine, the British Ministry of Defense announces that Kyrgyz nationals with Russian passports are forbidden to leave the territory of the Federation on the pretext that their names appear on the lists of mobilised. The authors of the publication assume that the Russian authorities are looking for alternative ways to the classic mobilisation in order to mitigate the discontent of the population. On the other hand, the Russian Ministry of Defense said that any “volunteer formation” willing to fight will be provided with the necessary equipment and will be able to receive medical assistance at the expense of the state.

On the Ukrainian side, the Secretary of the Council of Defense and Security Oleksiy Danilov said that a new large offensive similar to that of February 24, 2022 would be feared in the coming months, which will be decisive for the outcome of the war. In this regard, many states are providing substantial military aid to Ukraine, which Russian President Vladimir Putin denounced: “German tanks are threatening us again”. However, this offensive could begin before the delivery of European and American equipment is completed, says the media Bloomberg.

 01/31/2023: Working group meeting on resilience of Eurasian Economic Union member states’ economies in Moscow – Erwann Leyral

On January 31st, in a declaration published by the official website of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Reshetnikov stated that “Mutual trade between EEU countries for the 11 months of 2022 [had] increased by more than 13%, reaching almost $74 billion

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