The files we follow: Relations between Iran and its Neighboring Countries; Relations between Iran and the United States; Relations between Iran and the BRICS; Relations between Turkey and the European Union; Relations between Turkey and the BRICS; Relations between Gulf Countries and the United States; Geopolitics of Yemen: Between Internal Fragmentations and Regional Interferences.
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Since the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel, the situation in the Middle East has become increasingly uncertain. In Yemen, the Houthis have been economically and politically weakened by the U.S. strikes during Operation Rough Rider. Militarily, their air capabilities were completely destroyed following the loss of their last combat aircraft, in retaliation for missiles launched at Ben Gurion Airport. They can no longer count on support from their Iranian ally, as Tehran is now fully embroiled in a total war against Tel Aviv and Washington. Since the start of the 12-day war, and despite a ceasefire agreement, the Shiite resistance axis appears more weakened than ever. A political transition in Yemen in the coming months or years seems increasingly likely. The weakening of Houthi power paves the way for a possible return to civil war, reminiscent of the upheavals following the Arab Spring.
In 2011, like in many Arab countries, Yemen experienced a popular uprising aimed specifically at ending U.S.-Saudi interference and government corruption. The Houthis, dissatisfied with state management, launched an offensive against the presidency in 2014. During this period of intense instability, Al-Qaeda took advantage to expand its influence and multiply attacks on Yemeni soil. By 2016, the group controlled a 600-kilometer stretch of coastline from Mukalla to Zinjibar along the Gulf of Aden, according to Reuters.
Today, while the Houthis remain weakened in the north facing Western powers, and the south is engulfed in an alarming humanitarian crisis, Yemen—fragile on all fronts—is at risk of falling back into the hands of terrorist groups, notably Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Although weakened by the 2015 Saudi-Emirati coalition operations and by their rivalry with the Houthis, the Salafist organization remains active in the regions of Al-Bayda, Marib, and Hadramawt.
Several sources reveal that collaboration between Sunni groups and the Shiite Houthis has increased. Indeed, AQAP entered into an opportunistic alliance with their Houthi rivals to counter the pro-Western presence in the region. In 2022, they signed a non-aggression pact to focus on arms trafficking and jointly attack the Yemeni government.
On June 7, AQAP released a video titled “Incite the Believers,” in which the group’s leader called on Muslims to attack the U.S. government and American population, as well as Arab countries complicit in the crimes committed in Gaza, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Gulf states. Al-Awlaki’s speech constitutes a call for revolt in the Arab world and for the assassination of leaders he holds responsible for maintaining Western presence in the Middle East. Taking advantage of regional chaos and Houthi weakening, AQAP seeks to regain legitimacy among local populations by intensifying its rhetoric against declared enemies of Islam. It also maintains a discreet alliance with Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia. The UN reports that the Somali terrorist organization received significant munitions and explosives from Yemen in 2025. Ansar Allah is believed to have built a weapons trafficking network in the Gulf of Aden. Their aim is to fuel political instability in the Horn of Africa by funding Al-Shabaab while exploiting the corridor to smuggle Iranian weapons into Yemen via the black market.
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