Shifts and Tremors in the Western Balkans
Diplomatic Shift in North Macedonia
This is the new trend in international relations. Diplomatic realignment is continuously reshaping the global stage. With the rise of nationalist policies, the divide symbolized by the war in Ukraine, and the struggle between conservatives and progressives, various actors continue to overturn even their historical positions.
Most recently, North Macedonia appears to be embarking on this diplomatic shift by gradually distancing itself from the European Union. Initially a co-signatory of the letter titled “Promotion of a Global, Just, and Lasting Peace in Ukraine”, presented at the UN on February 24, 2025, which portrayed Ukraine as the aggressed party, it later rejected—alongside the United States and Russia—the amendment proposal to the American text “The Path to Peace”. This French proposal aimed to replace the term “Russo-Ukrainian conflict” with “Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine”.
Hristijan Mickoski’s government is thus asserting a more autonomous stance on the international stage, one aligned with Trumpism, advocating for a swift end to the war without durable guarantees or sanctions against Russia.
Meanwhile, ties with Viktor Orbán’s Hungary and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey are strengthening, particularly through economic and political agreements. The Prime Minister of North Macedonia is pursuing a sovereignist strategy, seeking—like Serbia—a precarious balance between Washington and Brussels while bolstering ties with the international conservative bloc.
This diplomatic repositioning could further slow down the European integration process, already suffering from general fatigue. As the EU struggles to carry weight in U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations, it also appears to be losing ground in certain regions of the Western Balkans.
Still No Government in Kosovo
Albin Kurti, who emerged victorious in the February 9 legislative elections in Kosovo with his Vetëvendosje! (Self-Determination!) movement, is struggling to secure a parliamentary majority. Winning 48 out of 120 seats, he fell short of a majority and has, for now, ruled out any alliance with the center-right Albanian opposition (PDK and LDK), which in turn refuses to cooperate with him. He is therefore relying on support from non-Serb minorities (Bosniaks, Gorani, Ashkali, Roma, Turks…), but even with their backing, he would still be several seats short of the required 61.
In this context, several scenarios could unfold, including individual negotiations with opposition MPs or an alliance of opposition parties against Vetëvendosje. However, such a coalition would be highly precarious given the tensions among the various Albanian parties. Under these conditions, disputes with the Serbian faction, which continues to boycott the country’s institutions, are expected to persist. Kurti has already faced criticism from the international community for his unwillingness to compromise with this minority, which remains loyal to Belgrade.
Bosnia Faces Separatist Threats Again
Some time ago, we published an interview with Alen Gudalo, a program coordinator monitoring Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU integration. He acknowledged that the outbreak of the war in Ukraine had postponed the risk of civil war in Bosnia, given the separatist ambitions of the Republika Srpska. Today, however, those risks seem to be resurfacing, even as peace negotiations continue in Ukraine.
The catalyst for this latest tension is the verdict sentencing Milorad Dodik, President of Republika Srpska, to one year in prison for defying the High Representative, German diplomat Christian Schmidt—an act deemed criminal. In response, Dodik has enacted several controversial laws aiming to restrict the operations of Bosnia’s national security and judicial institutions. These laws are widely viewed as an attempt to secede from Bosnia, a move that the Biden administration previously condemned, revealing the existence of a task force working on a “peaceful secession” plan.
The United States, through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and the European Union have strongly criticized Dodik’s efforts to undermine the post-Dayton Agreement peace process. Meanwhile, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, facing historic protests in his own country, has stood by Dodik, denouncing what he called a “pathological flood of insults” against Serbs’ attempts to negotiate with Sarajevo’s population“.
This situation marks yet another setback in dialogue between Serbs on one side and Croats and Bosniaks on the other. More worryingly, it revives ghosts of the past, increasing the risk of instability that could escalate into a full-scale conflict.
