The files we follow: China in the Indo-Pacific; Chinese Defence and Taiwan Strait; Chinese economic strategies and dynamics; China – Southeast relations; China and the BRICS; Power competition in the Indopacific; Relations between US and Indo-Pacific countries…
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As Washington and Beijing gradually resume military dialogue—most notably through the Shangri-La Dialogue, the largest defense forum in Asia—U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth continues to assert that the Indo-Pacific remains a central pillar of American power. However, while the aim of these discussions is to reduce tensions and prevent escalation, this has not stopped China from carrying out provocative actions in the region, even following the implementation of numerous joint military exercises (discussed in a previous article).
On May 21, 2025, a Chinese coast guard vessel used force against a Philippine research boat, causing material damage. The vessel was authorized by the local government to operate in those waters. The incident occurred near Thitu Island, which is controlled by the Philippines but claimed by Beijing. For several months, incidents have multiplied around a grounded Philippine navy ship that serves as an outpost. China’s tactics—aggressive maneuvers, intentional collisions, and water cannons—aim to dissuade the Philippines from exploring the region’s natural resources, which are rich in hydrocarbons and biodiversity. The Philippine government denounced the act as dangerous and illegal, emphasizing China’s role in escalating the situation.
This type of incident is far from isolated and occurs regularly, part of a broader, persistent conflict over maritime claims in the South China Sea. China claims nearly the entire area via the so-called “nine-dash line,” a boundary it unilaterally drew on maps to assert its sovereignty. This claim was invalidated by an international tribunal ruling in 2016. Nevertheless, Beijing continues to deploy warships, coast guard vessels, and maritime militias in the region, at the expense of neighboring countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.
The United States, a long-standing ally of the Philippines, responded immediately. U.S. Ambassador to Manila MaryKay Carlson condemned the incident, calling the actions dangerous and illegal, particularly as they endangered civilians. The U.S. State Department reiterated that any armed attack against Philippine personnel or vessels in the South China Sea could trigger the Mutual Defense Treaty signed between the two countries in 1951.
Japan was targeted more recently. On June 7 and 8, 2025, two Chinese military aircraft pursued a Japanese patrol aircraft for several minutes at an uncomfortably close range. Japanese authorities described the maneuver as abnormal and dangerous, warning that it could have led to an unintentional collision. The Japanese Ministry of Defense summoned the Chinese ambassador in protest.
As an ally of Japan, the United States reacted swiftly—especially given its involvement in joint aerial patrols in the region. Washington reaffirmed the legality of these air operations.
Despite concerns that the United States might scale back its regional presence under Donald Trump’s new term, the U.S. government continues to demonstrate strong support and commitment to its Indo-Pacific allies. The Trump administration has also encouraged regional partners to increase their defense spending, with a target of 5% of GDP—similar to its demands of European allies. This served as a pointed reminder to Europe that it must take greater responsibility for its own defense, allowing the U.S. to focus more resources on the Indo-Pacific theater.
Nevertheless, some concerns are emerging within the U.S. military. While the administration appears ready to engage in a potential conflict in the region, the nature of operations in the Indo-Pacific is vastly different from those previously conducted in the Middle East. Defending Taiwan or the coastal zones of the Indo-Pacific requires specialized training and a formidable naval presence. The U.S. military’s transition toward multi-domain operations will require rapid and significant adaptation.
