The files we follow: Relations between Iran and its neighbouring countries; Relations between Iran and the United States; Relations between Iran and the BRICS; Relations between Turkey and the European Union; Relations between Turkey and the BRICS; Relations between the United States and the Gulf countries; Geopolitics of Yemen: between internal fragmentation and regional interference.
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The collapse of Iranian nuclear negotiations in the background
The nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran have collapsed due to Israel’s intervention in Iran. Under pressure, the United States, torn between protecting Israel and adhering to Donald Trump’s isolationist doctrine, ultimately launched military strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, with the stated strategic goal of ending Iran’s nuclear program. However, the imminent threat of an American attack prompted Iranian authorities to relocate part of their enriched uranium stockpiles to other sites.
Following the U.S. strikes on Iran, Gulf states were placed on high alert, fearing Iranian retaliation against American interests, as they host U.S. military bases on their soil. Tehran, for its part, repeatedly threatened to target American military installations in the Middle East should the United States side with Israel. The worsening security situation, triggered by the threat of U.S. intervention, led Gulf governments to declare a state of alert. Defense councils were convened, and instructions were issued to the public on how to protect themselves in the event of an Iranian attack. On the social network X, Bahrain’s Ministry of the Interior urged citizens “to use main roads only when necessary to maintain public safety and to allow competent authorities to use the roads effectively.”
Gulf countries’ uncertainty in response to the U.S. strike on Iran
Despite their historical opposition to Iran’s nuclear program, Gulf states feared that U.S. strikes on Iran could destabilize regional security. Longtime opponents of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Gulf monarchies have revised their stance toward Iran in recent years, a shift largely explained by a new economic paradigm taking hold in the Gulf and the broader Middle East. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, an Emirati political scientist at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, stated: “Since Covid, we’ve decided to pursue a de-escalation policy, focusing on the economy as much as on security.”
This unprecedented shift in U.S. Middle East policy prompted the Islamic Republic of Iran to retaliate by launching an attack on the Al Udeid U.S. military base in Qatar, the largest American base in the Middle East.
A symbolic attack
This retaliatory attack in response to U.S. bombings of Iranian nuclear sites was largely symbolic. The Iranian regime did not intend to cause significant damage to U.S. interests, but rather to deliver a military response without triggering escalation. The goal was to signal to regional actors and the international community that Iran could not ignore such an attack, while avoiding outright war with the United States. In this context, Iran reportedly warned Qatar in advance that it would target the American base located on its soil. Similarly, in a post on the social network Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly stated that Iran had warned of the impending strike, allowing the United States to prepare and avoid major damage.
Reactions from Gulf countries
The reactions of Arab states to the American and Iranian strikes revealed a desire not to align with either party. The U.S. airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites triggered a wave of concern among Gulf governments, which had previously supported a hardline stance toward Tehran. Today, aware of the regional and economic risks, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman denounced the violation of Iranian sovereignty and called for de-escalation. Conversely, the attack on the Al Udeid base was also unanimously condemned by these actors. The majority of Arab states publicly condemned the Iranian attack.
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