On February 24, 2022, Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine, following the recognition of the independence of the self-declared Donbas republics by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the night of February 21-22. From mid-January, the American-Russian meetings on European security had deployed irreconcilable arguments in the virtual absence of the main parties concerned, that is to say the Europeans, while major Russian and Belarusian troop movements were taking place without worry most Western analysts, unconvinced of an imminent offensive. Yet it took place in the absence of a compromise between the principles and values of freedom and security. Beyond the stunning effect linked to the violence of events that leave no one indifferent, an effort to analyse and take a step back is needed 6 months after the start of this war.
This thematic and collective file dedicated to the repercussions of the war in Ukraine on the whole of the Eurasian space aims to identify the lines of force at work in this great geopolitical whole in order to provide the necessary tools for reflection concerning this great international upheaval born of the first armed conflict on European soil since the conflict in the former Yugoslavia.
From the situation in Gorno-Badakhshan and the renewed influence of China in this region to the state of progress in the accession of the Balkan countries to the European Union, from Turkish mediation attempts to the threats experienced by the Baltic States members of NATO, from the rich European institutional activity to the worrying evolution of the Afghan situation, from the place of far-right movements in Ukrainian national construction to the economic and financial rapprochement of authoritarian States against the extra-territoriality of US law, from Georgian membership of the European Union to new Russian-African relations, from European energy supply to Kazakh institutional reforms, from the progressive abandonment of the neutrality of western countries and northern Europe to the Iranian nuclear negotiations, from the Russian-Japanese conflict in the Kuril Islands to the new routes around Russia and the new gas partnership between Europe and Azerbaijan and the ambivalent relations of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass, the South Caucasus and Russia, and from the structural difficulties of the Russian army to the complexity of the situation in Moldova and Transnistria , many issues will be addressed.
The EurasiaPeace team capitalizes on its monitoring activity of several months before the open outbreak of armed hostilities and on the analysis capacities of its contributors to deliver to you, with the contribution of many researchers recognized in their field of speciality, the all the issues related to this historic conflict. Prospective not being predictive, this file will not reveal the outcome of this conflict, of which it is still too early to know all the long-term implications, nor will it make conjectures concerning its longevity, which depends on multiple and intertwined factors. This collective work is only an inventory highlighting trends to be monitored in order to understand the long-term consequences of this conflict which goes far beyond Ukrainian borders in the context of international globalization which is now ours.
Six months since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, this inventory is necessary in order to report on all the complexity of the situations affected by the Russo-Putinian offensive in Eastern Europe. And this, beyond the “block effect”, which can be obtained by reading the mainstream media under blinkers serving the anachronistic logic of the two heads of state Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin, pure products of the “cold war”, recreating at this very moment the only geopolitical environment in which they know how to evolve and which “civil societies” no longer want.
Wishing you a pleasant reading !