The files we follow: Relations between Iran and its neighboring countries; Relations between Iran and the United States; Relations between Iran and the BRICS; Relations between Turkey and the European Union; Relations between Turkey and the BRICS.
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President Trump sent a letter to the Iranian Supreme Leader via the United Arab Emirates, delivered by Emirati diplomatic advisor Anwar Gargash on March 12, proposing direct negotiations to supposedly reach a new nuclear deal. The letter is said to contain not only diplomatic overtures but also warnings and threats. Referring to the letter, Trump stated on Fox Business: “there are two ways Iran can be handled: military, or you make a deal”.
Although the letter reportedly includes a two-month deadline to reach a deal, it remains unclear when this timeline is meant to begin and significant uncertainties and speculations persist around the letter’s content and ton, as well as the precise objectives Trump aims to negotiate with Iran.
While the American National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, declared on March 23rd that the Trump administration is demanding the “full dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear program, asserting that Iran will not and cannot be permitted to maintain such a program and warning Iran of potential consequences, echoing Trumps ’s previous threats, Trump’s key figure in international diplomacy, Steve Witkoff, has suggested a more flexible stance through a willingness to pursue limitations instead. He affirmed a few days ago that “we don’t need to solve everything military”, potentially signaling an openness to a diplomatic resolution.
Tensions over Threats.
The threats directed at Iran have triggered numerous reactions, including from Iran’s army Commander-in-Chief, Abdolrahim Mousavi, who stated in early March that, although Iran is not a belligerent, it will defend itself if war is waged against its territory. In this context, both the Iranian army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, also known as the Pasdaran) have been conducting large-scale military drills for several months. This stance had already been echoed by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the end of January, when he warned that any Israeli or American attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities would lead to an “all-out war”, adding that such an attack would be “one of the biggest historical mistakes the US could make”. Iran’s Supreme Leader reaffirmed this position on March 21 in his Nowruz speech, declaring that the Trump administration’s threats regarding Iran’s nuclear program “will get them nowhere”.
Iran has consistently claimed that its nuclear program is intended solely for civilian purposes. It is worth mentioning that a recent report from a top American intelligence office stated that the Iranian nuclear weapons program, which was formally suspended in 2003 by Iran, has still not been authorized by Ayatollah Khamenei. As a matter of fact, the only country in the region widely believed to possess nuclear weapons today is Israel, which is also not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), as are other UN member states such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea, which also possess nuclear weapons and are not part of the NPT, with North Korea having withdrawn from the Treaty in 2003.
The prospect of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons remains a major concern in the region, as it would likely trigger a nuclear arms race, involving countries like Turkey, Egypt, and especially Saudi Arabia, which has already expressed its intention to pursue nuclear deterrence should Iran become a nuclear power.
The Iranian mission to the UN clearly reaffirmed a few days ago that negotiations around the dismantlement of Iran’s peaceful nuclear program will never take place, setting a categoric “no-go” for Iran. In fact, a Libya-like situation, where Libya under Gadhafi fully surrendered its nuclear installations and infrastructure, with subsequent consequence is something that Iran will never agree to, as corroborated by observers.
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