The files we follow: Relations between Iran and its Neighboring Countries; Relations between Iran and the United States; Relations between Iran and the BRICS; Relations between Turkey and the European Union; Relations between Turkey and the BRICS.
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A Pragmatic Alliance?
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated on 8 December 2024, “We will spare no effort to help establish security and stability in Syria, and to this end, we will continue consultations with all influential parties, especially in the region,” emphasizing Iran’s desire to maintain ties between the two countries.
On 11 December 2024, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei asserted that, while Turkey played a pivotal role in supporting the insurgency, the main conspirators behind the scenes are the U.S. and Israel.
With Bashar al-Assad’s regime overthrown after a less-than two-week offensive led by the Sunni Islamist HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham), the Islamic Republic of Iran has lost a close strategic ally and the only other state member of the Iran-led “Axis of Resistance”.
Initially, the Islamic Republic had little in common with the Ba’athist-rooted secular Assad regime, even as Assad’s governance shifted from secularism to sectarian pragmatic and authoritarian survival strategies, emphasizing its Alawite and Arab nationalist identity. Syrian Alawism diverges significantly in beliefs and practices from Iranian mainstream Shi’ism; however, both countries share a historical rooted narrative of persecution by Sunni-majority powers and a sense of marginalization in their identity. Syria’s alignment with Iran illustrates that ideological conformity, such as Hezbollah’s alignment with the Islamic Republic, is not a sine qua non for receiving Iranian support. Instead, Iran’s approach appears to be driven more by pragmatism and realism than by strict ideological considerations.
Speculation about Iran’s lack of support for Assad’s regime during its downfall has circulated widely. Explanations range from Iran’s weakened position due to recent blows, to the Assad regime being perceived as too fragile to remain a viable strategic ally. On 8 December, Iran’s Foreign Ministry blamed the Syrian army and government for failing to fulfill their duties, emphasizing that Iran’s role was never to substitute for the Syrian army in fighting the opposition, and furthermore that anyway Bashar al-Assad did not request assistance. In recent hours, some media reports have suggested that Assad ignored recent Iran’s warnings about rebels activities and growing dissatisfaction among the Syrian population over infrastructure and economic issues, further arguing that Assad even refused Iran’s offers of assistance.
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