The files we follow : Influence diplomacies in Central Asia; Energy and Natural Resources Diplomacy in Central Asia; Security Policies Issues in Central Asia
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The American elections delivered their verdict on November 6, 2024, declaring Donald Trump victorious. The strongman of the Republicans will make his grand return to the White House on January 20, 2025, to begin a second term as president of the United States.
While much of the world awaited – hoped for? – a continuation of the American presidency under a Democratic administration, many international diplomats must now resign themselves to cooperating with the hardline of American foreign policy for the next four years.
In this context, what kind of diplomatic relations can Central Asian countries expect from the future Republican administration?
A Foreign Policy Marked by Isolationism and Diplomacy
“America first.” This is the slogan chanted by Donald Trump during his campaign to make Americans – and international leaders – understand that the priority of his policy would return to domestic matters. Even though billions of dollars allocated by the United States to support the war effort in Ukraine feed the American military-industrial complex, Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the Biden administration and the aid plans for Ukraine, arguing that these investments should be directed towards national interests.
Despite his virile rhetoric, Donald Trump is not inherently a warmonger. The newly elected president aims to significantly reduce American military engagement abroad, advocating for rapid diplomatic solutions to end conflicts.
During his first term, Donald Trump pursued the strategy of disengagement of American forces in the Middle East initiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, by negotiating the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan himself. A withdrawal that was carried out under the Biden administration, opening the way for the Taliban to take Kabul. During his campaign, the Republican leader boasted about resolving the Ukrainian conflict within 24 hours. His teams were reportedly already preparing a peace plan to bring the Russian and Ukrainian presidents to the negotiating table to reach a peace agreement. The same applies to the Middle East. While he claims to be Israel’s greatest ally, a bold statement given the historical ties between American presidents and the Jewish state, he has repeatedly urged Benjamin Netanyahu to end the conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. This, in order to focus on extending the Abraham Accords, which he considers his “greatest diplomatic success.”
China in the Crosshairs
Is Central Asia sidelined in American foreign policy? Under a Trump II administration, this seems likely. However, despite the isolationist tone of the future Republican foreign policy, continuing the strategy of containing China is a priority shared by both Democratic and Republican administrations. The latter takes an especially aggressive stance towards Beijing, viewing this confrontation as direct, even “oceanic.” The policy of candidate Trump includes the application of 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, a policy driven by his hawkish inner circle, which includes figures like Mike Pompeo and Robert Lighthizer, “seen by Beijing as enemies of China.”
Central Asia Offers a Dual Strategic Advantage to Counter China’s Rise
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