The files we follow: Armenia-Azerbaijan relations; Georgia between Russian influence and Western aspirations; Georgia/Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflict; South Caucasian energy, trade and transport issues; Human rights in the South Caucasus.
Consider subscribing for free access to the full content!
Political crisis in Georgia: EU membership process delayed, massive protests and repression
Over a month after parliamentary elections in which the ruling Georgian Dream party claimed victory, Georgia is mired in a major political crisis. The opposition and President Salome Zourabichvili, who refused to recognize the results, continue to denounce large-scale election fraud. [For more on this topic, see: Georgia Between Russian Influence and Western Aspirations – Status as of 11/27/2024.]
In a resolution adopted on November 28, the European Parliament declared the elections “neither free nor fair” and called for new elections. It also urged the EU to impose sanctions on Georgian leaders. That same day, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the suspension of efforts to start EU accession talks until 2028, stating that the government would reject all EU budgetary support until then. While reaffirming the goal of joining the EU by 2030, he harshly criticized European representatives, labeling several parliamentary resolutions “false and insulting” to Georgia and accusing the EU of interfering in the elections.
Since this announcement, large pro-European rallies have been held nightly outside the Parliament in Tbilisi and in other cities, with protests violently dispersed by security forces. In a December 2 statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk condemned the “disproportionate use of force against demonstrators” and urged Georgian authorities to “protect freedom of expression and assembly.”
Repression escalated on December 4, with raids on opposition party offices and activists’ homes. According to media reports, over 300 people have been arrested since November 28, including prominent opposition figures like Nika Gvaramia (Coalition for Change). Eight members of the political organization Dafioni have also been placed in pretrial detention. Accused of organizing “group violence” they could face up to nine years in prison. Local rights groups such as the Georgian Young Lawyers’ Association (GYLA), Transparency International Georgia, and the Georgian Ombudsman’s Office report police brutality, arbitrary arrests, inhumane and degrading treatment of detainees, and targeted attacks on journalists.
COP29 in Azerbaijan: mixed results
From November 11 to 22, Azerbaijan hosted COP29 amid a tense atmosphere marked by intensified crackdowns on dissent and strained relations with the European Union, particularly with France. While negotiations concluded key agreements on carbon market rules under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, Azerbaijan faced criticism for its credibility on climate issues and its human rights record. The organization Kick Big Polluters Out highlighted the involvement of 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists in discussions, accusing Azerbaijan of diverting attention from emissions reduction efforts.
On November 21, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock condemned arrests of journalists and civil society members during a media address in Azerbaijan. Separately, U.S. Democratic Congressman Frank Pallone, known for his advocacy for Armenia, was reportedly forced to leave the country after being excluded from a meeting organized by President Ilham Aliyev with other U.S. lawmakers.
According to Azerbaijani human rights organizations, there are around 300 political prisoners in the country today. In late November, Rufat Safarov, president of the organization Defence Line, alerted the Azerbaijani ombudsman about the deteriorating health of academic Fazil Gasimov. Arrested in Turkey in August 2023 and extradited to Azerbaijan, Fazil Gasimov has reportedly been tortured in detention—a claim denied by prison authorities. Amnesty International reports that Safarov himself was arrested on December 3, facing charges of “large-scale fraud” and “hooliganism” and potentially facing up to ten years in prison.
Armenia: Reduction in aid for Nagorno-Karabakh displaced and government resignations
In Armenia, the government has decided to reduce financial aid for displaced people from Nagorno-Karabakh, redirecting resources toward a housing assistance program launched in June 2024 for displaced people. Labor and Social Affairs Minister Narek Mkrtchyan argued that a significant number of displaced individuals have now access to employment or entrepreneurial opportunities, making it necessary to focus on long-term solutions like housing. The reduction in aid (both in terms of amount and eligibility) is set to take effect in April 2025, sparking discontent among the displaced population.
Additionally, six government officials have resigned at the request of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, including the chair of the Judicial Council, the head of the Anti-Corruption Committee, and the Minister of Territorial Administration. Excluding personal motives, Pashinyan justified the resignations by citing poor performance in judicial and law enforcement systems and inefficiency in anti-corruption efforts despite government support (such as salary increases and new equipment).
