The files we follow: Relations between Iran and its Neighboring Countries; Relations between Iran and the United States; Relations between Iran and the BRICS; Relations between Turkey and the European Union; Relations between Turkey and the BRICS; Relations between Gulf Countries and the United States; Geopolitics of Yemen: Between Internal Fragmentations and Regional Interferences.
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On May 6, Donald Trump announced on Right Side Broadcasting Network the capitulation of the Houthi regime to the United States and the establishment of a ceasefire between the two parties. The agreement was brokered with the mediation of the Sultanate of Oman, in a context where de-escalation was anticipated on both sides. According to the official website of the Omani Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “In the future, neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping.” During his speech, the U.S. president declared that the American mission’s objectives had been achieved. Reuters reported that the ceasefire may have been initiated by the Houthis through U.S. intelligence channels. An American official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: “We started getting intel that the Houthis had had enough”
However, uncertainty remains over the U.S. position in the region following the ceasefire announcement. The agreement was not formalized in writing and appears largely informal. Trump confirmed its oral nature during his media appearance: “We’ll take them at their word. They say they will not be blowing up ships anymore.” In the absence of a formal commitment, the durability of the ceasefire—especially regarding commercial vessels—remains unclear. Moreover, the effectiveness of Washington’s “Operation Rough Rider” is questionable, given the gap between the means deployed and the results achieved. According to CNN, the cost of the offensive exceeded one billion dollars. In total, two aircraft carriers, six B-2 bombers, and more than 1,000 missiles were deployed over three weeks to reach a fragile stalemate. Such a massive operation seems disproportionate considering that the threat affected only about 3% of U.S. maritime trade. Even assuming that the U.S. strategy pursued broader objectives—such as pressuring Iran or defending Israel—the results remain limited. The show of force did not yield the hoped-for concessions from Tehran on the nuclear front. Nor did it deter attacks against Israel: since the ceasefire was announced, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for several missile strikes on Tel Aviv.
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