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Eastern Europe Geopolitical Watch – From 11 to 17 February 2023

Eastern Europe monitoring team : Fiona Bessioud, Elisabeth Nagy, Séverine Ly, Marie Corcelle, Claire Aréthuse, Olga Chekhurska, Olivier Husson

This week : Russian missiles crossed Moldovan and Romanian borders to hit Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, Bulgarian government divided over sending arms to Ukraine, A call to leave Belarus and Russia, OSCE Chairman-in-Office visits the Republic of Moldova, Moldova fears a future Russian coup, Visit of the Hungarian Foreign Minister to Minsk Personnel changes in Ukraine’s defence ministry, 9th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group took place at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, Lukashenko outlines conditions for his army’s involvement in Ukraine and his solutions for peace, Israeli Foreign Minister visits Ukraine, Trial of Nexta Live Telegram founders begins in Minsk, Kosovo celebrates its independence today but tensions persist with Serbia

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10/02/2023 – Russian missiles crossed Moldovan and Romanian borders to hit Ukrainian civilian infrastructure – Fiona Bessioud – 

In the early hours of 10 February, Valery Zaloujny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, wrote on Telegram: “Two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles have crossed the border of Ukraine with the Republic of Moldova. At about 10:33 a.m., these missiles crossed into Romanian airspace”. Volodymyr Zelensky, reporting on this event, immediately informed the population that several bombings, mainly targeting civilian infrastructure and civilians themselves, had hit six regions of Ukrainian territory. Thus, several thermal and hydroelectric power plants were damaged and the most affected areas were the Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi and Zaporizhia oblasts. More specifically, many explosions took place in Kiev, Kherson and Lviv. According to Herman Haluschenko, Minister of Energy, “it was possible to preserve the integrity of the energy system”. The attack included the use of more than 100 missiles, including 29 S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles and 71 cruise missiles. In addition, the Russian army used several rockets. This attack is part of the strategic framework of destabilisation of the region and psychological warfare by depriving the population of a suitable energy supply. Finally, the crossing of missiles in Moldova and Romania risks increasing tensions with NATO, as Romania is a member of the organisation.

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