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Dear EurasiaPeace readers,
To coincide with the Chinese New Year festivities on January 29, 2025, we’re offering a special format: reading geopolitical news in the light of this pivotal period. Here you’ll find a brief summary of the major dynamics of the contemporary Chinese economy – a slowdown in growth, albeit mitigated by a recovery in tourism and domestic consumption.
- Chinese New Year and the economic benefits for China
The Year of the Wooden Dragon is coming to an end, giving way to the Year of the Wooden Snake. The coming year is therefore symbolised by the “wisdom” and “intuition” of the snake, coupled with the “growth” and “inventiveness” of the wood.
At a time when China is facing a ‘new normal’ – a term used to describe the slowdown in its growth – the Chinese New Year is a sign of renewed energy for its economy, thanks to a number of factors. Synonymous with parties and celebrations, that Chinese are accustomed to getting together to share time with their families, this period also sees a drastic increase in tourism with the arrival of Chinese from outside the country, but also thanks to internal travel. What’s more, as hinted by the ‘hongbao’ 红包, little red enveloppes that families hand out to each other during the festivities to celebrate the New Year, the country’s domestic traditionally consumption soars during this period.
- A vigourous boost for tourism
Thanks to the lifting of health restrictions linked to Covid-19 in 2022, the Chinese population has once again been able to move around the country freely, particularly during the holiday season. At a time when China’s growth rate is struggling to exceed 5%, weakening a country of over one billion four hundred million inhabitants, the Spring Festival offers a welcome boost to the Chinese economy. Indeed, the year 2024 saw 474 million Chinese travelers, up 19% from 2019, according to the Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
This year, some predictive models predict a 25% increase in tourist travel compared to 2024. Shang Kejia, an official with the Civil Aviation Administration of China, says that “the most popular destinations are tropical hotspots such as Hainan and Yunnan, as well as winter destinations in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Xinjiang”. The Luxury Tribune website forecasts a 45% increase in inbound flights during the Chinese New Year period compared to 2024.
The Chinese government expects 9 billion trips to be made during the Chinese holiday season, i.e. over a period of 40 days from mid-January. The Chinese authorities are therefore hoping to exceed last year’s figure of 8.4 billion trips over the same period. However, this figure is likely to be inflated by a change in the Ministry of Transport’s calculation methods, which has decided to take into account journeys by autonomous car – and according to Reuters, autonomous car journeys are expected to account for 80% of trips during this period. Of the expected 9 billion journeys, car travel is expected to account for 7.2 billion of the total. The same estimates predict 510 million passengers for trains and 90 million for planes.
The inscription in December 2024 of the “Spring Festival, social practices of the Chinese people in celebration of the traditional New Year” on UNESCO’s Representative List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity has further stimulated the population’s desire to travel. This is evidenced by an 87% year-on-year increase in searches for scenic spots and travel products related to intangible cultural heritage. Economist Cao Heping of Beijing University believes that “vigorous consumption during the Spring Festival should give China’s economy a good start this year and inject new momentum into the global economy”. Optimism for this Year of the Wooden Snake is also expressed by the President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Borge Brende, when he himself says he is “optimistic about the Chinese economy in the medium and long term. China is now taking steps to stimulate the economy and increase domestic consumption”.
- Stimulated domestic consumption
The Lunar New Year is also, through the purchase of traditional necessities – decorations, food – but also gifts to loved ones, synonymous with a remarkable surge in domestic consumption. Reflecting this ritual vitality, the number of reservations at the Haidilao chain of restaurants specializing in Chinese fondue recorded over 40,000 nationwide on January 21 to celebrate Chinese New Year’s Eve. Other factors, such as industrial innovation, digitization and the recent inclusion of the Lunar New Year in UNESCO’s Intangible World Heritage list, are also contributing to this recovery.
Innovation and attractiveness
But Chinese New Year is also an opportunity for manufacturers to showcase their innovations in everyday consumer products. The 29th Beijing New Year Products Fair, organized by Beijing Longhuafeiyue Trading Co, exemplifies this diversification. The 2025 edition of this fair is special in its appeal: over 300 exhibitors have come from China and elsewhere, including New Zealand, Iran and Pakistan. Every day, 20,000 to 30,000 visitors flocked to the 15,000 square-meter venue to shop for Lunar New Year goods.
A dynamism that extends geographically and virtually
Outside the capital, other regions and online platforms are taking advantage of the opportunity to promote their products and boost sales. This is particularly true of e-commerce company JD.com, which has set up its own virtual festival, open from December 24, 2024 to January 23, 2025. As a result, searches for specialized products on the platform were forty times higher than normal.
Culture sector also receives a welcome boost
Symbolizing the flourishing craze for the Lunar New Year in China and the resumption of barrier-free living, nearly 16,300 shows were staged across the country, generating revenue of 778 million yuan. These figures were up 52.1% and 80.09% respectively on an annual basis. In addition, these various shows organized across the country attracted over 6.57 million people, or around 77.71%, more than the previous year, reports the Ministry.
The film industry in particular benefits from this craze: in 2022, box-office takings during the Spring Festival exceeded 6 billion yuan, or almost 1 billion USD. This year, interest in cinema is still high. But above all, the box-office record set in 2024 of 1.1 billion dollars could be surpassed following the week of Chinese New Year 2025: indeed, ticket presales for films showing during the Spring Festival vacation already exceeded 500 million yuan (69 million dollars) on January 26. Some films are highly anticipated, such as The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants, which tops the pre-sales list with $48.3 million.
